The US recovers the types of principles of the crisis in its third annual rise

The US recovers the types of principles of the crisis in its third annual rise

The Fed forecasts a fourth rise before the end of 2018 due to the "vigorous" growth of its economy and that there will be more "gradual" increases

  The economy of the United States, which is still the first in the world, put its clock on Thursday with the beginning of the crisis. The third interest rate increase agreed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) so far this year, from a quarter point to the target range of 2% to 2.5%, takes the price of money to levels not seen since mid-2008. It is also the highest of the western economies -the euro zone remains at 0%, the United Kingdom at 0.75% and Canada at 1.5% - only surpassed by the emerging ones -6.5% in India and Brazil, by 4.35% in China-.

  The organism that governs Jerome Powell fulfilled thus with the forecasts, even with those that aimed a consolidation of the official reference over 3% in the medium term. Thus, for 2019 it estimates a rate of 3.1%, in 2020 3.4% and for 2021 - year of which until now it had not made estimations - the level of 3.4% will be maintained.

To reach this level, the Fed will apply "gradual" increases periodically, and even plans to do a fourth this year. If it were to materialize, it would be the eighth since the current cycle of increases began in December 2015. Official rates then stood at 0.25% in the United States, only a quarter of a point above the historical 0% at which it ended. 2008 - that year cut the points by more than four points from 4.25% in December 2007 - and endured the crisis.

The official statement of the Fed does not include, as a novelty, the term "accommodative" to refer to its economic policy, something that Powell himself played down but that comes to indicate that the body feels more or less liberated to continue accompanying the conjuncture. That is to say, he would be telling the market that from now on he will be neutral in handling the rates, without seeking to stimulate or restrict growth.

Without "policy change"

"It reflects that things are in line with expectations," said the Federal Reserve Chairman, who tried to convince at his press conference after the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that "does not represent a change Politics". But that will have to be seen in the coming months, especially considering that the fourth annual increase expected in 2018 would come just after the legislative elections in November.

The main sustenance of these last rate hikes has been, in any case, an economic growth in the US described as "vigorous" by Powell, with inflation now contained around 2% and a "strong pace" of progress in its GDP, until carrying its forecast of advance in 2018 from 2.8% to 3.1%. By 2019 it also increases one tenth to 2.5%, while in 2020 it leaves the rise of the economy at 2%.

In the US labor market, however, he sees fewer positive changes. In fact, it raised one tenth its estimate of unemployment this year to a rate of 3.7% -in August closed at 3.9% with 6.2 million unemployed throughout the country-, leaving it at 3.5% for the next one.

Fear of tariffs

More emphasis put the president of the Fed when referring to the effects of the tariff war initiated precisely by the United States and, in particular, its controversial president Donald Trump, after admitting that they are listening "a growing chorus of concerns of entrepreneurs across the country by disruptions in supply chains, cost increases, market losses and so on ». That is why a "loss of confidence and less investment".