The war of the tariffs already invoices to the world-wide growth

The war of the tariffs already invoices to the world-wide growth

The OECD estimates that the advance of the GDP would have reached its peak, below 4%, weighed down by the commercial tension and the crisis of the emerging ones

  A panorama of «high uncertainty». This is the diagnosis that the analysts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) gave on Thursday in view of the evolution of the growth of global activity in the short and medium term, after warning in its latest report that the tariff war initiated by Donald Trump in the spring is already taking its toll on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of other regions of the globe.

  It was the feared thing for months, although it is now when the club of the main economies of the world puts on the table more concrete calculations. After a relatively quiet 2017, it was expected that 2018 would consolidate the growth rates and could even reach an average of 4% globally. But in the end it will not be possible: "the expansion may have already reached its peak", he warns. In the organization chaired by the Mexican Angel Gurria estimate that the international average of GDP will advance this year and the next 3.7%, which is one and two tenths less, respectively, than they had considered in his report in April.

But, what has changed since then? Well, fundamentally, the commercial tensions that are increasing, at the rate of threats partly confirmed by the US president, which has considerably raised the rates with which it taxes the imports it receives from other countries. China has been the main target of its commercial battles for now, after the EU will achieve an armistice this summer.

Curiously, the pagans of that greater conflict are being for the rest of the countries for now. Thus, the OECD maintains its growth forecasts for the United States and China practically unchanged: 2.9% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 (here one tenth less) for the first, compared to 6.7% and 6.4% this year and the next the second.

The 'brexit' also counts
On the contrary, the euro zone would suffer negative consequences. If the forecasts of the organization are met, its GDP would increase two tenths less than expected this year (2%) and another (1.9%) next, also penalized largely by the effects of a 'brexit' which must be closed before the end of March. Something similar would happen in the G-20, another forum that brings together the main world economies including the emerging ones, as their average growth would slow down one and three tenths less respectively, remaining at 3.9% in 2018 and another 3.8% in 2019.

Special mention makes the OECD to two countries that suffer crises such as Argentina, whose GDP_ would drop 1.9% this year instead of growing two points as estimated at the beginning of the year, and Turkey, whose economic growth was reduced to 3.2 % in 2018 (two points less) and would hardly be 0.5% in 2019. Both suffer a high external deficit and also have a lot of debt in foreign currency, which makes them especially sensitive to the latest currency devaluations.

   

US soy fills Europe
Europe has complied with Donald Trump in record time. On July 25, the EC president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and his US counterpart agreed to avoid tariff penalties for the EU car industry; in exchange, the Union partners committed to buy more agricultural products from the EU. UU

      Said and done. Since then, imports of US soybean have skyrocketed by 133% to 1.47 million tons, representing 52% of what reaches the Twenty-eight, more than double the 25% that they represented at the end of 2017. Brazil, the main exporter of this product to the EU, has been the main pagan of this strategy, reducing its sales quota to 40%.